Authors: Eva Maxfield Brown, Cailean Osborne, Peter Cihon, Moritz Boehmecke-Schwafert, Kevin Xu, Mirko Boehm, Knut Blind
This paper introduces a novel measure of software innovation. We analyze open source software (OSS) development activity data from GitHub using approximately 200,000 unique releases from 28,000 unique packages across the JavaScript, Python, and Ruby ecosystems to examine package dependencies and release complexity over time up to two years post-release. We find that semantic versioning of OSS releases is correlated with their complexity and predict downstream adoption. In particular, major versions show differential, strong prediction of one-year lagged log change in dependencies. We identify major releases as a unit of innovation complementary to scientific publications, patents, and standards, offering applications for policymakers, managers, and researchers.